One of the main issues threatening the success of future reactor-scale tokamaks is disruptions. It is the sudden loss of confinement where the plasma rapidly dissipates its energy onto the first wall, exposing the device to excessive mechanical stresses, heat loads, and can lead to the formation of a runaway electron (RE) beam. Unmitigated disruptions could potentially cause severe damage to the device and thus, modelling such events is crucial for being able to assess the effectiveness of various mitigation techniques. The ITER baseline disruption mitigation system will be based on shattered pellet injection (SPI). With the modelling framework DREAM[^1], we self-consistently evolve the poloidal magnetic flux and current density, ion charge state densities and temperatures, thermal electron temperature as well as the RE density – all in a flux surface-averaged fluid description of the plasma. In this contribution we study the effects of deuterium-neon mixture SPI on the disruption dynamics in ASDEX Upgrade. We employ a probabilistic approach in generating distributions of both the fragment mass[^2][^3] and velocity, for which statistical variations are assessed by performing multiple simulations with different realisations. Simulations show good agreement with measured current quench rates and radiated energy fractions in SPI experiments, with a relatively higher statistical variance at low fractions (~1 %) of injected neon. **References** [^1]: M. Hoppe, O. Embreus, T. Fülöp, Computer Physics Communications 268 (2021) [^2]: P. Parks, Technical Report GA-A28352, General Atomics (2016) [^3]: T.E. Gebhart, L.R. Baylor, S.J. Meitner, IEEE transactions on plasma science 48.6 (2019)